BBER PUBLICATIONS SEARCH RESULTS

The expansion of Medicaid to cover adults with incomes up to 138% of the poverty line took effect in Montana in the beginning of 2016. The impacts of the program have been profound. The number of Montanans covered by either Medicaid (traditional and expanded) or the Childrens Health Insurance Program (CHiP) statewide in February of 2023 was 179,591 higher than a decade earlier, with the percentage of the population not covered by health insurance cut in half as well. Health care spending by previously uninsured Montanans has increased, both from increased consumption of health care and from shifts from previously uncompensated care (whose costs were borne by providers and other paying consumers) to care paid for by the program. Based on national studies, there is solid evidence that better health care outcomes, less financial stress, and better labor market participation have occurred for low-income Montana households as well.

The findings of this report are that the operations of the crude oil-based and renewable fuel refineries in Great Falls by the Calumet Montana Refineries and MR subsidiaries of Calumet Specialty Products ultimately support a state economy that has significantly more jobs, income, production and population.

To say that the minerals, metals, fuels and compounds that come out of the ground are what make the economy run and modern life possible is not an overstatement. From the complexity of miniaturized microchips to the simplicity of a concrete foundation, mining products are ubiquitous across the spectrum of products we consume and produce. Yet the physical distances between the mines where these raw materials are produced and the urban areas where most people live obscure this connection for many. Thus the mining industry, in Montana and elsewhere, has always faced challenges in securing political support for its continued operations as well as planned expansions. This report does not wade in to the political debate over the Montana mining industry?s current and future activities, except to offer evidence on one aspect of the mining industry?s presence in our state ? the contribution of hard rock mining activity here to the size, scope, and prosperity of the Montana economy.

Cooperatives in Montana are so ubiquitous that their unique importance to the economies of the communities where they are located can be overlooked. This study aims to address that situation. Using operating and financial data gathered from 126 separate cooperative businesses located in every corner of the state, we construct a measure of their ultimate economic contribution in terms of jobs, incomes, spending, population, and other measures. In carrying out this task, we also learn many details about what they do, who they serve, and how their activities underpin the prosperity of many parts of the state.

This is a study of the economic contributions of the three facilities owned and operated by the metal mining company Sibanye-Stillwater in Sweet Grass and Stillwater Counties in south central Montana. The company?s Montana facilities, which include two mines and a concentrator and recycling facility in Columbus, jointly constitute one of the largest private sector employers in the state, whose 1,978 jobs paid average compensation in excess of $151,000 per year in 2021. The growth in the company?s core business, and the potential for continued growth into the future, merit the update to the BBER assessment of its economic footprint contained in this report. Our basic finding is that the size and scope of the company?s Montana operations have grown significantly since the BBER last studied its economic impact based on 2019 operations.

The filming of the fourth season of the television show "Yellowstone" in the Bitterroot Valley of Montana has resulted in significant gains for the state economy that extend beyond those receiving the wages and other spending of the production itself.

This is a study of the activities and the economic contributions of what has arguably been one the most important and most visible industries during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic: the Montana bioscience industry. Across the entire state, the manufacturers, research laboratories, medical facilities and equipment wholesalers who jointly comprise this important segment of the state economy have been an important source of economic growth and vitality. By drawing on both publicly available data as well as survey responses from Montana bioscience companies, this report presents a comprehensive picture of the industry?s activities and how those activities support the economy as a whole.

The expansion of Medicaid to cover adults with incomes up to 138% of the poverty line took effect in Montana in the beginning of 2016. The impacts of the program have been profound. The number of Montanans covered by either Medicaid (traditional and expanded) or the Children?s Health Insurance Program (CHiP) statewide in February of 2023 was 179,591 higher than a decade earlier, with the percentage of the population not covered by health insurance cut in half as well. Health care spending by previously uninsured Montanans has increased, both from increased consumption of health care and from shifts from previously uncompensated care (whose costs were borne by providers and other paying consumers) to care paid for by the program. Based on national studies, there is solid evidence that better health care outcomes, less financial stress, and better labor market participation have occurred for low-income Montana households as well. This report summarizes the results of an analysis that applies the same methods used in the BBER?s statewide studies on the economic impacts of Medicaid expansion in Montana to develop estimates of impacts for Cascade County, the third largest health care cluster in the state.

Benefis Health System, a nonprofit independent health care system based in Great Falls, has an extensive economic and health care footprint in the north central region of Montana and beyond. It has recently moved ahead with plans to extend its physical presence to Helena with investments in urgent care, medical imaging, and outpatient surgical facilities. Those new investments, collectively referred to as Benefis Helena in this report, are expected to increase the health care capacity of Lewis and Clark County and the adjacent regions, especially regarding access to specialized care. They also will contribute to job growth, income growth, and population growth as a result.

Where Housing is Headed: How Will Today's Imbalances Be Resolved? By Patrick M. Barkey
Montanans Struggle to Access Affordable Childcare: The Crisis of Montana's Workforce By Caitlin Jenson and Tracy McIntyre
The Financial Value of Montana's Natural Beauty: How Should We Measure Our Natural Capital? By Jakki Mohr and Carmen Thissen
Housing Trouble in Paradise: Housing Needs Demand Creative Solutions By Abigail St. Lawrence

Statewide Economic Performance: Consumers Lead Strong Bounce Back By Patrick M. Barkey
The Performance of the BBER Forecast: Forecast Relatively Accurate Despite Economic Shocks By Derek Sheehan
Montana's Regions and Cities: Pre-COVID Growth Patterns Reemerge By Patrick M. Barkey
State Revenue Report: Montana Tax Revenue Very Strong By Terry Johnson
Major Economic Events of 2021: Montana Bounces Back By Patrick M. Barkey

Here are the top 10 predictions for the U.S. and global economies courtesy of our friends at IHS Markit:

This is a study of how the construction and successful operation of a four-year graduate medical school located in Great Falls, Montana would affect the economy of the state and its regions. The proposed Montana Osteopathic Medical School (MMS) is a new, privately funded, not-for-profit school that would be the first of its kind in Montana. Our basic finding is that the construction and operation of the Montana Medical School would be a major economic event. The nature and magnitude of the jobs, income, and sales that can be expected to occur in the coming years due to the presence of MMS in the economy evolves over time as the project moves through the phases of construction and operation, and as a fraction of the graduates of the school begin their careers within our state. But the impacts add substantially in all phases to output, employment, income and sales across Montana.

This is a study of the contributions made to the economy of the state of Montana by the production, employment, spending and tax revenues that can be attributed to 58 of the state''s hospitals. Hospitals'' high paying jobs, high value-added production, and significant tax payments add to the state economy in their own right. As the dollars paid to employees, vendors and governments are in turn respent in the economy, their ultimate significance grows. The Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) at the University of Montana was retained by the Montana Hospital Association (MHA) to carry out an analysis how Montana hospitals enhance the state''s economy. This report summarizes and documents the results. Our basic finding is that Montana hospitals generate considerable economic prosperity, not only for the communities in which they are located, but for the state as a whole. In addition to providing the overall state economic impact, we also report the impacts of 58 individual hospitals across the state.

The purpose of the Montana World Trade Center International Trade and Investment Survey is to illuminate key characteristics of Montana businesses that engage in international trade. These characteristics demonstrate the importance of international trade to the Montana economy in terms of jobs produced, wages paid and revenue generated. The findings of this survey also provide information that business and government decision makers can use to grow our international trade portfolio.

How we work is rapidly changing as we approach the fourth industrial revolution. What can Montanans expect in this new world of work?

Financial markets have been interrupted and workers are being furloughed. When can we expect a recession?

This study of the Economic Contributions of the Lehrerleut Branch of the Hutterite Communities in Montana was performed by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana (BBER), in partnership with the Montana State University Department of Economics and Agricultural Economics. It was commissioned by Church, Harris, Johnson and Williams, P.C., on behalf of the Lehrerleut Communities. This research summary highlights the outcomes of the study, which will be described more fully in a forthcoming report. The role of Hutterites in the local economy, and the contributions made by the Communities to the total economic pie are not well understood by many Montanans. The broad goal of this study is to address that information void and highlight the economic impact the Hutterite Communities have on their local economies, as well as on the economy of the entire state. Our basic finding is that the presence of the 81 farming operations owned and operated by the 38 Lehrerleut Communities examined in this study support production, employment and income in the Montana economy that is significant in size and scope. The substantial linkages that exist between their agricultural and other operations and the rest of the state economy ultimately support jobs and income in non-Hutterite and non-agricultural sectors of the economy, resulting in a larger economic pie for all Montanans to share.

The year in review has sections covering Statewide Economic Performance: Montana''s Growth Engine is Humming, The Performance of the BBER Forecast: Improving Accuracy, Montana''s Cities and Regions: Gallatin County Now State''s Second Largest, State Revenue Report: Another Strong Year, Major Economic Events of 2019: Another Year of Growth.

of last year was how much longer could the U.S. economy continue to ride high as the rest of the world seemed to be faltering? Just a few short months ago, we thought the answer was clear ? not much longer. But much has changed in just a few months. Here are the top 10 predictions for the U.S. and global economies for 2020 courtesy of our friends at IHS Markit.

The first-of-its-kind study documents and quantifies the linkages between Hutterite businesses and the rest of the state economy.

Montana University System research has a significant impact on the state?s economy, providing income, jobs and tax revenue.

The U.S. economy continues to move into positive territory and the unemployment rate is at a near historic low. But is a recession coming in 2019?

Each Montana community has its own unique economy. Take a look at the largest communities in the state, as we summarize their recent economic trends.

Forest related industries have long played a major role in Montana?s economy ? especially in the western part of the state. The decades-long drum roll of layoffs, reduced employment and mill closings have been the subject of many discussions and headlines in the media. This paper takes a systematic view of Montana?s forest industry during the past few decades and identifies the major causes of industry trends. The conclusion is that timber harvest volumes in Montana are the major factor impacting industry conditions, including employment and labor earnings. Labor productivity has generally increased in Montana?s larger timber-processing facilities, but these gains are not driving reduced employment and labor earnings in Montana?s forest industry.

This study examines the implications of closing Units 3 and 4 of the Colstrip Electric Generating Station early. Specifically, we examine the consequences for jobs, income, population, economic output and other measures of economic activity.

Medicaid expansion in Montana generates several thousand additional jobs and several hundred million dollars in additional income. It also pays for itself and grows the economy.

We asked speakers from the 2018 Economic Outlook Seminar to share their insights on the prospects for some key sectors of the state economy.

The overall world outlook is more positive than last year. Global economic growth is up for 2017 and will accelerate in 2018. Take a tour of the global economy with a summary of national and state trends.

Over the past 20 years the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) has caused considerable tree mortality across the Rocky Mountain region of the western United States. Though the operational and cost impacts of dead timber are generally well known in the sawmill industry, there remains a need to better understand the impact of large scale outbreaks on the industry at local and regional scales. Using an expert opinion survey of sawmill managers and procurement staff, this study quantified the relative importance of various cost and operations factors related to harvesting and processing beetle killed timber in Montana. Respondents reported an average log supply of trees in the red or gray stage of mortality as 24.5 percent of log supply from 2010 to 2014, but this dropped to 5.8 percent by 2015. Cracking and checking were perceived as having the highest negative impact on log value, while waste in milling and breakage of logs in handling were ranked highest for milling operations. For a typical lodgepole pine stand, the volume estimated as sawlogs showed a 15 percent decrease between green and red stages and a 50 percent decrease between red and gray stages, with most of the volume change moving into the pulpwood category. Total average cost increases from green to gray for logging, loading and hauling, and sawmilling were 43 percent, 46 percent and 46 percent, respectively. Results generally support known relationships between defects, costs, recovery, and value, with some interesting departures with regards to blue stain and equipment maintenance.

The 2017 Economic Outlook Seminar covered a wide range of sectors and topics from job growth to energy and tourism. In this round table discussion, we highlight some of those topics and industries in an effort to better understand the state?s economic climate.

This report explores the contribution of health care to Flathead County?s economy. Specifically, we investigate how health care contributes by addressing eight questions: 1) What is health care?; 2) What is health care in Flathead County?; 3) How does one evaluate the contribution of an industry to a regional economy?; 4) How valuable is health care?; 5) Is Flathead County?s health care sector efficient?; 6) If Flathead County?s health care sector disappeared, what would happen to Flathead County?s economy?; 7) How large is the traded component of Flathead County?s health care sector?; 8) What does the future hold for health care in Flathead County?

This study examines the size and scope of those economic contributions. Specifically, this study poses the question, "What would the economy of Missoula look like if Grizzly Athletics did not exist?" Using information from financial records, ticket sales, attendance, and a survey of Grizzly football season ticket holders, we have estimated how much larger the economy of today is - in terms of jobs, income, spending and population - than would be case if the Grizzly Athletics were not a part of it.

In this study we examine the economic contributions of craft brewing to the state of Montana. This is the third iteration of this research, previously completed in 2012 and 2014, separately. We find the Montana craft brewing industry to be experiencing rapid growth, with total beer production having increased by 87% since we began collecting data in 2010. Measured by other metrics the industry is growing even faster, with sales, employment, compensation, and expenditures all having more than doubled in that time. Given all this activity, we find the total economic impact of craft brewing to be sizeable, contributing 1,044 jobs, almost $34 million in personal income, $103 million in output by Montana businesses, and 278 additional residents living in the state due to the operations of Montana state brewers. New to this study is Montana brewer agricultural purchases, totaling about $4.5 million dollars in 2015. Finally we look at some of the intangible benefits of brewpubs and find them to invigorate neighborhoods, repurpose industrial properties and bring communities together.

The American energy boom began with improvements in technology and led to the shale-energy revolution. This article attempts to put events into perspective by looking at the Bakken area on the Montana-North Dakota border over the entire boom and bust cycle.

The world is buzzing with the news of the United Kingdom?s withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit). Whatever the outcome it could not have come at a worse time. Take a tour of the global economy in the wake of Brexit.

Intercollegiate athletics play a major role in colleges and universities, individual communities and American culture. Lean how University of Montana athletics impact the Missoula economy in visitor spending, jobs and personal income.

This is the second annual report on the high tech industry in the state of Montana. The Montana High Tech Business Alliance (HTBA), formed in 2014, is a member-driven group of high tech businesses and other organizations statewide. The Alliance asked the University of Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) to collect information and insights from its members so that a better assessment of its economic footprint and its prospects for continued growth could be made. This report presents the findings of that research.

The big story is Montana''s economy coming into balance; both geographically and across industries. Three or four years ago, commodity prices were high and oil was booming. That, along with high agriculture prices, made for faster growth in rural counties, primarily eastern counties, rather than in bigger cities.

In 2015, a University of Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) survey of Montana High Tech Business Alliance (MHTBA) members captured for the first time data measuring the size and growth potential of Montana?s high tech sector.

Since 2010, real estate markets are returning to health, and housing prices have been moving up again in most Montana markets. And those prices are pushing beyond, in some cases, what median income Montana households can comfortably afford. The biggest disparities are arising in the rental markets, which have seen higher demand as homeownership rates continue to slide downwards. But single family home prices have been rising fast as well, especially in the western half of the state.

The Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) reviews its Economic Outlook Seminars, other Outreach efforts, publications, reseach projects and finances for 2015. Each of the BBER programs: Economic Analysis, Forest Products, Survey Research, Manufacturing Research, Energy Research, Heath Care and Montana KIDS COUNT is discussed.

If you enjoy sleepless nights and watching your hair fall out, then perhaps you should get into the commodity business. The big swings that occur in commodity prices, often due to speculation or events half a world away, make the business of prediction an exceedingly risky one. Yet Montana producers of all kinds of commodities have been mostly winning in the marketplace the better part of the last decade. Sustained high prices for everything from oil to beef have added spark to the state economy and kept tax coffers in Helena flush.

Prime topics of conversation in Sidney and throughout the Bakken area are the latest rumors and speculations about the price of oil. Some people are wondering what the impact of the drop of the price of oil by 50 percent since mid-2014 will do to the economies of Eastern Montana. But it is not just the people living within 50 miles of the Montana-North Dakota line who should be concerned because the economic impacts will be felt far from the drilling and extraction sites.

This report on the high-tech industry in the state of Montana is the first of its kind. The Montana High Tech Business Alliance (HTBA), a newly formed, member-driven group of high-tech businesses and other organizations statewide, asked the University of Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) to collect information and insights from its members so that a better assessment of its economic footprint and its prospects for continued growth could be made. This report presents the findings of that research.

Montana''s high-tech industry will grow 8-10 times the projected statewide growth rate, with average wages at about $50,000 - twice the median earnings per Montana worker, according to a recent study by the University of Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research.

Trailhead Commerce Park is a rail-accessible industrial development project located in Lockwood, Montana, that is intended to serve manufacturing, transportation, warehousing, and other commercial business development. As it is conceived by its developers, its location adjacent to the BNSF/MRL rail line, bisected by the proposed Billings bypass roadway, and situated in the strategically well-positioned Billings market area, would make it an attractive candidate for business expansion. Its successful construction and development could be a major economic event for the Billings and southeastern Montana economies.

For the past five years, we?ve witnessed something of an economic miracle in the eastern third of our state. Even more so in the western third of North Dakota. Towns and communities that were once depopulating and shrinking to the point where their schools and basic institutions were threatened have come roaring back, thanks to the Bakken oil boom. And for the first time in living memory, the rural portions of Montana ? particularly in the east ? were growing faster collectively than any of the urban areas.

A wide-ranging discussion covering economic topics of interest. The discussions include: the Economy, Healthcare, Tourism and Recreation, Agriculture, Manufacturing, Forest Products, Housing, and Energy. A panel of industry experts and economists provide their responses to important questions regarding Montana?s economy.

During the late 1980s the high-flying Japanese were buying so many American companies and choice pieces of real estate that we wondered if they?d eventually own everything. And when the housing bubble first burst in 2007, the Germans were feeling smug because they were sure their stolid banking system would never permit anything like the meltdown happening here. But in 2015 those countries and many others will be looking with envy at the American economy. Because as things are shaping up, we may be the only growth game in town. U.S. job growth trends are accelerating, and even if quarterly growth ebbs and flows, it looks like the national economy is moving into a higher gear.

The new shale energy revolution has been an economic boon to manufacturers, with lower energy costs having a major impact on the industry. And worldwide trends that have caused manufacturers to move their operations offshore - low wages in developing countries and lower energy costs - are beginning to trend the other way.

In an effort to help quantify the economic impacts of forest management, information from public databases was used to estimate direct forest industry employment from the harvesting and processing timber. Employment estimates per unit of timber harvested are referred to as direct response coefficients (DRCs). This research provides employment DRCs for 16 forest industry sectors and 11 regions within the Unites States. Employment DRCs are expressed as number of workers per million cubic feet (MMCF) of timber harvested and processed on an annual basis.

This article examines property taxes in Montana''s largest urban areas - Billings, Bozeman, Butte, Great Falls, Helena, Kalispell, and Missoula. Tax rates - also known as mill levies - are the highest in Missoula and lowest in Bozeman.

This is a study of the economic contribution of Montana craft brewing to Montana?s economy. The first study of this nature on the brewing industry was conducted in 2012, based on operating conditions in 2010 and 2011. The current study builds on that work by investigating the trends during 2012 and 2013 and estimating the current economic contribution of the industry. There were 40 breweries operating in the state by the end of 2013, with another 11 breweries in planning. This ranks Montana third in the nation in breweries per 100,000 adults over age 21, according to the Brewers Association.

About 77,200 off-highway vehicles (OHVs) were registered for off-highway use in Montana during 2013. These vehicles are used both for pleasure and work. OHV-owning households own an average of two machines, and two family members usually participate in outings. Montana OHV users spend between 4.2 million and 5.9 million days recreating. This project was sponsored by Montana State Parks. Montana State Parks administers the OHV Program.

The Bureau of Business and Economic Research''s most recent surveys suggest that about 8 percent of the state''s households include snowmobile recreationists. Nearly always, the whole family participates. With an average household size of about 2.5, perhaps as many as 100,000 Montanans participate in the sport each winter. Nonresident snowmobilers are important contributors to the Montana economy. Our estimates suggest that nonresident snowmobilers spend about $147 per activity day, including food, lodging, and often, snowmobile rental costs. Nonresidents accounted for about 97,000 activity days during the 2013-2014 snowmobile season, spending an aggregate of nearly $14.3 million in Montana. That spending supports about 200 winter jobs. This project was sponsored by Montana State Parks, which administers the Snowmobile Trails Program.

This is a study of the economic contribution of the operations of the Montana Beer and Wine Distributors Association (MBWDA) to Montana?s economy. The beverage distributing industry is a major contributor to the economy, with impacts throughout the state and across industry sectors. To illustrate these contributions, MBWDA sought to determine precisely how distributor operations impact jobs, income, and sales of all Montana businesses and households. Using a state-of-the-art policy analysis model and data collected by MBWDA staff, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) at the University of Montana produced a detailed assessment of beer and wine distributors? impact on employment, income, output, and population in the Montana economy.

A BBER study found that Montana''s beer and wine distributors are major contributors to the economy, with impacts throughout the state and across industry sectors.

It''s not just people in energy industries who are benefiting from the oil boom. Workers in industries such as construction, professional services, and accommodations now have great employment opportunities and higher wages.

This is a study of the effects on the Montana economy of the operations of the Montana Board of Research and Commercialization Technology (MBRCT), a program established by the Montana Legislature in 2000 to encourage economic development through investment in Montana-based research projects with a clear path to commercialization. The Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana (BBER), using a state-of-the-art policy analysis model and publicly available data on program spending and associated impacts, produced a detailed assessment of the ultimate impact of the operations of the program on employment, income, output, and population in the Montana economy.

Living a "Montana lifestyle" with access to recreational opportunities is one of the advantages of operating a business in Montana, according to respondents to BBER''s annual manufacturers survey.

Q&A with Montana''s leading economists and industry experts on economic issues facing Montana.

Forecasts for the U.S. economy have called for sluggish growth this year, with better growth next year. But each year in this sluggish recovery, the goalposts are moved back and we must again wait for better growth "next year." Has "next year" finally arrived in 2014?

Reversing a decades-long trend, it was the rural, eastern counties that led the state in growth and the more populous western counties that suffered the steepest declines.

Great Falls continues as the dominant urban area in north central Montana. A strong health care industry, combined with the stability of the military, has meant that the Cascade County economy escaped most of the ups and downs associated with the Great Recession.

The Great Recession hit the Lewistown economy, with the greatest impacts in construction and manufacturing.

The Great Recession hit the Flathead economy hard. But, unlike some other parts of western Montana, the Flathead economy recovered quickly and is now growing moderately.

Gallatin County is tied with Flathead County and trails only Bakken-fueled Yellowstone County in terms of overall economic growth since the recession trough in 2009.

The Great Recession was barely noticeable in Hill County. There were only two years with little or no growth in income.

Helena was in the news in 2013, in an unfortunate way, as sinking gold prices claimed a casualty with the closure of the Drumlummon mine. The mine''s closure was offset by surprisingly strong growth in health care, government, and government-related services industries.

Montana''s second largest economy, home to one of the two flagship state universities as well as the state''s second largest health care delivery market, is still very much alive.

Recent economic statistics demonstrate Ravalli County''s economy is emerging from the downturn experienced in the Great Recession.

Much was expected of the Billings area economy at the beginning of the year. And for the most part, it has delivered.

Using the REMI economic model the economic impact of the Archie Bray Foundation for the Ceramic Arts was analyzed for Montana. The operations of the Foundation, which produces and sells ceramics, its educational workshops, and the summer festival it hosts were all considered in the analyses. It ultimately supports 26 year-round jobs and about $1.4 million of income to Montana households (37 year-round equivalent jobs and $2.1 million in festival years).

While women now participate equally in the wage economy and earn a majority of all bachelor''s degrees, this has not led to financial equality. Women do not share equally in the economic well-being of the state.

The 2013 Montana Economic Development Summit in Butte was one of the biggest and the best. Together, with some of the most influential business leaders of our time and ambassadors from some of Montana''s most important trading partners in the world, we helped sow the seeds for unlimited potential.

The federal government plays an important role in the national and state economies, having spent more than $3 trillion throughout the U.S., and almost $11 billion in Montana in fiscal year 2010. Federal spending varies significantly by state and may be thought of as influenced by politics, but in fact it is more influenced by economics and demographics.

The number of home-based workers usually is outside the normal labor information stream, but the American Community Survey asks people how they get to work. This question provides information on commute time and place of work and determines whether people are home-based workers.

Bureau of Business and Economic Research''s Annual report for fiscal 2012 - 2013 details the activities and finances for the year. Each of the BBER''s programs are reviewed and various research projects and publications are highlighted.

Q&A with Governor Steve Bullock on statewide economic issues and plans for his first year as governor.

Even as growth continues to spread and solidify across the state, important pieces of the economy remain far from healthy. The national economy will turn in a more sluggish growth performance this year. This and other global economic developments make us a bit more measured as we re-examine Montana''s growth prospects.

Migration had dramatic impacts on Montana during the past two decades, affecting the total population, its distribution between rural and urban areas, and composition by age, including school-age populations.

North Dakota is experiencing an oil boom that has increased total U.S. oil production as well as sheltered the state from the economic impacts of the Great Recession. Montana doesn''t have as much oil development activity as North Dakota, but is experiencing impacts of the development in Western North Dakota.

The U.S. economy is now in the fourth year of an exceedingly slow recovery that began from a cyclic trough in the second quarter of 2009. The recovery is under way in manufacturing. The comeback of durable goods production accounted for most of the growth. This report was prepared by Montana State University Montana Manufacturing Extension Center and the University of Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research and examines trends in Montana manufacturing.

One of the more visible changes soon to be brought to the forefront by passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is the health insurance exchange, or marketplace. More than 350,000 Montanans may have some change in health insurance as a result of the ACA, although not all will enter the marketplace.

The first decade of the Twenty-first Century proved tumultuous for the West's forest products industry. A strong economy, low interest rates, easy access to credit, and real estate speculation fostered more than two million U.S. housing starts in 2005 and record lumber consumption from 2003 to 2005. With the decline in U.S. housing beginning in 2006, the 2008 global financial crisis, an over 50-year record low 554,000 housing starts in 2009, wood product prices and production fell dramatically. In 2009 and 2010, virtually every major western mill suffered curtailments and 30 large mills closed permanently. Sales value of wood and paper products in the West dropped from $49 billion in 2005 to $34 billion in 2009. Employment declined by 71,000 workers and lumber production fell by almost 50 percent from 2005 to 2009. Capacity utilization at sawmills and other timber-using facilities in the West fell from over 80 percent in 2005 to just over 50 percent in 2009 and 2010. With the exception of exports and some paper markets, U.S. wood products markets have improved little since the recession officially ended in 2009.

Although the Great Recession officially ended in 2009, manufacturing in Montana continued declining through 2010, falling to under 20,000 workers after the pre-recession level of nearly 24,000. However, both 2011 and 2012 revealed growth for Montana manufacturers, with annual sales increasing to more than $13 billion and employment topping 21,000 workers for the first time since the recession''s end. This article includes the results from the annual survey of Montana''s largest manufacturers, which queries manufacturers on a variety of business issues pertaining to both the year just completed and the outlook for the coming year.

The 2013 economic outlook for Flathead County focuses on private and government employment within the county.

The 2013 outlook shows the economy of Butte-Silver Bow is continuing to diversify. Strong growth in health care and administrative support services have helped propel this growth.

The 2013 economic outlook for Gallatin County indicates improvement and faster growth in the future. The forecast for overall growth in Gallatin County is higher than in any other major urban area in the state.

The 2013 economic outlook for Yellowstone County focuses on the importance of energy and wholesale trade. It forecasts continued growth in Yellowstone County.

The 2013 economic outlook for Missoula County forecasts a projected growth of about 2.4 percent per year between 2013 and 2016, which is slightly less than the statewide average.

The 2013 economic outlook for Cascade County suggests modest growth, with stronger gains in agriculture-related businesses and light manufacturing offset in part by government declines.

The 2013 economic outlook for Lewis and Clark County predicts a temporary boost in growth in 2014 due to the end of the state government pay freeze. Even so, overall growth in the county well be less than 2.0 percent per year.

The 2013 economic outlook for Ravalli County forecasts a slow recovery. This report highlights lagging housing construction as well as the weak real estate market.

The 2013 outlook for the state of Montana predicts that the strong growth seen in 2012 will continue. Statewide growth in inflation-adjusted nonfarm earnings is expected to build to a peak of 3.0 percent by 2014.

A lot of things started to fall into place for the recovering Montana economy in 2012. We estimate that the state economy grew by about 2.7 percent in 2012.

The process of diversification away from its historic mining roots continued in the Butte-Silver Bow economy in 2012, yet the influence of minerals and natural resources to the local economy remains important.

Despite its image as a wild and woolly cowtown, Miles City has a diverse economic base dependent on federal and state government, agriculture, and agricultural-related activities and transportation.

Is the Gallatin County economy regaining its pre-recession form? Judging from the most recent data you might be tempted to say it has.

There is no doubt about it Helena is a government town. The end of the state government pay freeze should temporarily boost growth in 2014. But the near-term trends for all levels of government will keep overall growth in the Lewis Clark County economy less than 2.0 percent per year, less than the statewide average.

This has been a long recession for the Missoula County economy, but the end may finally be in sight. The latest data for employment show definite growth during 2012 while corresponding figures for inflation-adjusted wages also turned upward, but with significant volatility.

Ravalli County's economy appears to be coming out of the Great Recession, albeit slowly. The real estate market has stabilized with the number of residential real estate sales in 2012 increasing over 2011 levels. Prices are about the same, but days on market increased slightly over 2011 levels.

The past decade has been an economic roller coaster for Richland County. Annual growth rates ranged from a -7 percent to almost 19 percent. Most of the volatility can be traced to the Bakken oil boom and trends in the mining industry.

The direct and indirect impacts of the eastern Montana energy boom made for a short recession in Yellowstone County. There was one year of stagnation (2008) and one year of decline (2009) followed by accelerating growth in 2010, 2011, and 2012.

This is a report on a study conducted by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research which examined the economic contribution of the craft brewing industry. The research was designed to answer the question, What does the craft brewing industry contribute to the Montana economy?

Spending for working-age populations with disabilities is increasing faster than gross domestic product. The return on investment for tax dollars spent on the Montana Vocational Rehabilitation Program for those successfully rehabilitated is positive.

How rich or poor are Americans? Where do they work, and what training do they have for their jobs? What languages do they speak? The American Community Survey is an ongoing survey that provides answers to questions like these and gives communities the current information they need to plan investments and services.

Annual report for the BBER covering the years activities and accomplishments featuring major projects from each of the program areas.

To say that the behavior of the economy deviated from normal during the 2008-09 recession would be an understatement. The downturn was long and severe, and it left no county in Montana untouched. For the third consecutive year, the nation's economy has stumbled at mid-year.

The 2011 national high school graduation rate was 75 percent. The remaining 25 percent, about 1.2 million high school seniors across the country, did not attain a high school diploma.

Census Bureau population estimates are used for allocating more than $400 billion to various political entities and to determine eligibility for many social programs. So how accurate are the estimates?

This is a study of the effects on the Montana economy of the development of Otter Creek coal in southeastern Montana. An assessment of the impact on employment, income, output, and population.

There are more than 36 million people with a disability in the United States, accounting for almost 12 percent of the total civilian non-institutionalized population. In Montana, the proportion with a disability is greater. Thirteen percent (125,302) of the civilian non-institutionalized population in Montana has a disability. Working age adults with a disability, those 18-64 years of age, comprise over half of the disabled population in Montana and nearly 11 percent of all working adults in this age group. With continued increases in the cost of health care and an increase in the number of working-age Montanans with disabilities as a result of the aging baby boom generation, the federal and state share of spending to support this population represents a large and faster growing share of all federal and state expenditures. The aging of the baby boom generation is expected to contribute to growth in Social Security Disability Insurance awards for at least another decade. In Montana, federal government payments for Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income alone totaled more than $469 million in 2010, up 5 percent from 2009, and almost 10 percent from 2008.

This press release announces the completion of an economic impact study conducted by Patrick Barkey. This study concludes that expansion of the Spring Creek coal mine would boost jobs, household income and tax revenues in Montana.

This report traces the flow of Idaho's 2006 timber harvest through the primary wood-using industries; describes the structure, capacity, and condition of Idaho's primary forest products industry; and quantifies volumes and uses of wood fiber. Wood products industry historical trends and changes in harvest, production, employment, and sales are also examined.

The 2012 economic outlook for Yellowstone County predicts accelerated growth, with inflation-corrected nonfarm earnings growth roughly at the state average throughout the forecast period of the baseline forecast.

The economic outlook for the Butte area projects growth of about 1.7 percent per year from 2012 to 2015. This projected growth rate is slightly less than the 2.4 percent statewide average and down almost a full percentage point from the pre-recession figures for the Butte-area economy.

The economic outlook for Ravalli County indicates a weak real estate market, however a promising sign is the growth in professional services.

The economic outlook for Montana shows that the state has experienced a rate of overall growth that is less than expected. This is due to inflation, weak individual sector performances, and U.S. economic growth.

The economic outlook for Missoula County details expected growth as construction declines are halted and a firmer recovery in tourist and trade center-related spending takes hold.

The economic outlook for the Helena-area economy shows a better than expected performance. The baseline forecast calls for renewed growth in 2012 and beyond at just below the state average.

The economic outlook for Gallatin County forecasts a 3.2 percent growth from 2012 to 2015. Gallatin County is projected to be among the fastest-growing urban areas in Montana.

The economic outlook for Flathead County notes that because the recession hit the Flathead economy more so than other urban areas of the state, returning to pre-recession levels of labor earnings and employment may prove more challenging for this county.

The Cascade County economic outlook projects growth of about 2 percent per year from 2012 to 2015. This is approximately the same average growth rate as before the recession.

Annual report for the BBER covering the years activities and accomplishments featuring major projects from each of the program areas.

Montana''s 2010 population of 989,415 shows an increase of 9.7 percent since 2000, bringing an addition of just more than 87,000 people to the state.

This report assesses housing affordability, and analyzes the factors affecting the cost of housing in major real estate markets within Montana.

A press release explaining that between the 2000 and 2010 Census many Montana communities saw increases in population. However, in some cases these shifts were because of changes in geographic boundaries as well as population growth.

Vacation homes are a major part of several Montana communities, and the numbers have increased; however, most of the growth occurred before the recession. Sales of vacation homes have been nearly nonexistent the last couple of years.

This is the sixth annual report to the community on housing in the city and county of Missoula. This report provides a gauge of the overall health of Missoula real estate and indicates real estate''s impacts on the overall local economy.

After enduring the broadest, deepest recession seen in the state in 25 years, Montanans can expect to see better growth arrive in the state economy in 2011.

The recession was relatively mild for the Billings area economy. There were only modest declines in 2008 and 2009. In addition, Billings has been an indirect beneficiary of the energy/commodity boom.

The economic outlook for Butte-Silver Bow County notes that the recession was relatively mild for the Butte area economy. There was only a one-year decline in nonfarm labor income. There were, however, decreases in construction and retail trade.

The economic outlook for Ravalli County shows that despite a large cyclic decline within the county, there is a bright spot as Hamilton continues to evolve into a regional trade and service center.

The economic outlook for the state predicts growth due to the following: investment in the state's energy and natural resource infrastructure, growth in farm receipts, growth in exports, and continued strengthening in consumer spending.

The economic outlook for Missoula County acknowledges that the county has experienced three straight years of economic declines, however growth is projected to turn positive in 2011.

The economic outlook for the Helena area projects growth to be about 1 percent per year from 2010 to 2014, well below the 3 percent to 5 percent increases before the recession.

The 2011 economic outlook predicts that the Bozeman area will emerge from the recession relatively unscathed. 3.5 percent annual growth is projected for 2010 to 2014.

The Flathead County outlook predicts that it will be at least 2014 before real nonfarm labor income in Flathead County regains its 2007 peak. It will take even longer for employment to regain its pre-recession level.

The 2011 economic outlook shows the Great Falls area economy experienced fewer recession impacts than any other area in Montana. Even so, certain sectors, mostly wholesale trade, retail trade, and construction, were hard hit.

Annual report for the BBER covering the years activities and accomplishments featuring major projects from each of the program areas.

Stubbornly high unemployment rates, permanent closures in key industrial facilities, and budget pressures on state and local government have arrived along with the recession in Montana. It is important to continue assessing the state of our economic recovery so that we can make good decisions for the coming years.

As Americans age, their likelihood of migrating, their reasons for moving, and their destination choices shift dramatically. Baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) are entering a stage when moves to rural locales increase, especially to areas with scenic amenities and lower housing costs.

This report documents the research findings of how the operations and the output of The University of Montana-Missoula contributes to Montana's economy.

The economic cost of alcohol abuse in Montana impacts all parts of the economy and is estimated to cost the state $511 million dollars per year. In Montana, an average of 1,700 people are injured in alcohol crashes each year. Bodily harm and life threatening injuries from alcohol related injury crashes account for over 10% of all vehicle crashes in the state, but 20% of all vehicle crashes with injuries in the state.

The recession's impact on men and women differed nationally and even generated the coining of a new term, mancession, to describe the more negative impacts of the recession on males. Higher rates of job loss for males had the related impact of pushing the percentage of female workers in the national economy upward, to the point where data indicate that women now constitute a near majority of the nation's workforce. The recession's impacts on men and women in Montana have matched some, but not all, of the national trends.

The deepest recession in several generations is finally over, but the hangover remains. Growth has begun slowly in the national economy, with a very modest uptick in housing and industrial output providing the spark. Expansion will be helped by exports and the weak dollar, but will be held in check by weak consumer spending and tighter credit. Stronger growth is not foreseen until 2011, and then the economy remains in a fragile state.

It certainly has been a trying time for the Montana economy. The state remains in the grip of its worst recession since the 1980s, and news of closures and layoffs is depressingly easy to find. Yet it is also apparent that a long-awaited recovery in the economy has begun to take hold.

There is almost no place in Montana that escaped the recession, but the recession impacts do vary from city to city. This article provides a look at the economy in the following counties: Missoula, Flathead, Butte-Silver Bow, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Yellowstone, Gallatin, Fergus, and Hill.

It has been a shaky year for Montana's housing sector. Montana is experiencing many of the problems facing the rest of the nation, albeit to a lesser degree. Home prices are declining in some parts of state. Sales and construction are both down relative to previous years. Mortgage defaults are growing, but are still lower than the national average.

The slow rates of growth forecast for Yellowstone County in 2010 and later reflect continued weak conditions in construction and real estate plus increased competition from retail and service establishments in second-order trade centers such as Bozeman and Miles City.

The Butte-Silver Bow County Economic outlook shows declines in mining, transportation, real estate, construction, and retail trade. The trade center components of Butte's economic base continue to grow.

The economic outlook for Ravalli County shows one bright spot: Hamilton continues to evolve into a regional trade and service center. Slight positive growth is forecast for 2010 but may be too optimistic.

The 2010 outlook expects recovery overall in the state economy as consumer spending in the national economy stabilizes and markets for Montana's products begin to improve. Job growth will be slow, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain high through 2010.

The projected -0.7 percent decline for Missoula County in 2010 may be too optimistic. The three straight years of no growth or declines (2008 to 2010) is Missoula's worst economic performance since the early 1980s.

The Helena economy will not totally escape the impacts of the current recession despite it being a 'recession proof' government town. The preliminary 2009 data show significant weakness in real estate, construction, and retail trade. Growth is projected.

For Gallatin County, growth is projected to return in 2010 and later, but the growth rates will be far below those posted from 2003 to 2007.

The Flathead economy is the epicenter of the recession in Montana. It will be at least mid-2013 before real nonfarm labor income in Flathead County regains its 2007 peak. It will take even longer for employment to regain its pre-recession levels.

The 2010 outlook shows that not even the Great Falls economy will completely escape the current recession. Preliminary 2009 data show weakness in construction, real estate, retail trade, wholesale trade, and transportation.

Addresses the short-term and long-term impacts that the closure of the Smurfit-Stone facility in Frenchtown will have on the Missoula-area economy.

Annual report for the BBER covering the years activities and accomplishments featuring major projects from each of the program areas.

The forecasting business is by its very nature future-oriented. So even though evidence of the recession remains depressingly easy to find, the signs of recovery in the coming months are becoming clearer as well. The question for Montana's economy is, what will the recovery look like?

This report details the findings of a comprehensive evaluation of labor force availability in the 11 counties of north central Montana. During the summer and fall of 2008, researchers at The University of Montana''s Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) surveyed a random sample of adults in Blaine, Cascade, Chouteau, Glacier, Hill, Judith Basin, Liberty, Phillips, Pondera, Teton, and Toole counties to assess the labor force status, availability, training preferences and other characteristics. The purpose of the project was to construct and present a more comprehensive assessment of labor force status and availability than can be obtained from the employment and unemployment statistics gathered regularly by state and federal statistical agencies. The emphasis was on those in the adult labor force who are receptive to new job opportunities. This includes both the under- and the unemployed.

Four-wheeling through mud, snow, and woodsy trails continues to grow in popularity in Montana, with the state''s off-highway vehicle (OHV) owners spending nearly $123 million during 2008 and paying more than $1.4 million in to the highway trust fund via gasoline taxes. But a recent survey of OHV recreationists found that the sport is thriving amidst worry from enthusiasts that growth will hamper access because of poor behavior from a few riders.

Our basic finding is that there are a substantial number of individuals currently working who report themselves as willing and available for new job opportunities. Statewide, there were almost 261,000 adults who could be classified as available for new job opportunities.

About 54,000 off-highway vehicles (OHVs) were registered in Montana during 2007. OHV owning households own an average of two machines and two family members usually participate in outings. Residents spend nearly all of their out-of-pocket trip costs for gasoline. We estimate that OHVers buy about 5.3 million gallons of gasoline per year. With a base tax of $0.27 per gallon, we estimate that OHVers in Montana generate over $1.4 million in revenue for the state highway trust fund.

This is an assessment of housing affordability and factors affecting the cost of housing for the major real estate markets within Montana.

What started as a real estate bubble bursting, with an associated financial industry crisis, has now morphed into an economy-wide (and even a worldwide) recession. Since the official beginning was pegged as December 2007, this recession will probably be one of the longest and deepest since World War II.

Montana's economic outlook has darkened during the past year as a national economic slowdown concentrated in a few industries spread to more and more sectors. The Bureau slightly lowered its forecast at midyear 2008 to account for the deterioration then present. The current forecast calls for barely positive growth in 2009, with modest accelerations to 2.2 percent in 2012.

From its peak in 2005 to 2006, the Montana housing market has slowed considerably, but in general, home prices continue to hold. A few of the counties that saw the most rapid run-up in sales and prices are now experiencing price declines, but overall, the value of typical Montana homes continues to grow.

The 2009 economic outlook predicts that a slowdown in the natural resource industries is likely to have a 'double whammy' on the Yellowstone County economy.

The 2010 forecast for Butte-Silver Bow predicts continued growth of the trade center components and further development as a regional trade and service center. Future economic trends depend crucially on events in the mining industry.

This outlook notes that although Ravalli County's growth has decelerated significantly since the 1990's as migration has slowed, Hamilton continues to evolve into a regional trade and service center.

The Montana Outlook for 2009 predicts that the state's economy will grow about one half of 1 percent during the year. Depending on risk factors the actual figure could turn out to be a decline of one half of 1 percent.

The 2009 outlook for Lewis and Clark County indicates that the current recession will likely have a relatively small impact on the Helena-area economy. State and federal government workers account for almost 65 percent of the economic base in Lewis and Clark County, and government employment is traditionally less cyclic.

The 2009 outlook for Gallatin County states that although the bust in construction and real estate as well as the slowing national economy have impacted the county, all trade center components continue to grow.

The 2009 economic outlook for Flathead County states that after a 1.1 percent decline in the overall economy in 2008, the Flathead economy is projected to reach 4 to 5 percent growth by 2012.

The 2009 economic outlook for Cascade County predicts that Cascade will be among the least impacted of Montana's major urban areas by the current recession.

A press release announcing that Patrick Barkey has scaled back his forecast of the state's economic performance for 2008 and 2009 from 4 percent annual growth to 3.3 percent.

Our basic finding is that the number of workers currently residing in Flathead County who are potentially available for new employment opportunities is substantially larger than official unemployment statistics would suggest. We estimate that as of summer/fall 2008, there were approximately 19,500 individuals, aged 18 or older, who identified themselves as candidates for new job openings. By contrast, the Montana Department of Labor and Industry reports that for September 2008, the most current month available at press time, the number of unemployed individuals in Flathead County was slightly less than 2,200. The wide discrepancy between these two estimates stems from the fact that the available labor pool contains substantial numbers of individuals who are currently employed, but willing to change jobs in response to new opportunities.

High energy prices, mortgage foreclosures, bank failures, and the collapse of Wall Street have launched the U.S. economy into a state of chaos and confusion. Though there are still too many uncertainties to make an informed estimate of when or by how much Montana's state forecast will change, the Bureau will remain cautiously optimistic.

Annual report for the BBER covering the years activities and accomplishments featuring major projects from each of the program areas.

Compared to other states, Montana has not been hit very hard by the national economic slowdown. Montanans have experienced the bursting of the house price bubble and mortgage foreclosures, but not nearly to the extent of other states. Overall, the downturn in the national economy is not likely to have significant impacts on Montana because the U.S. industries hit hardest by recession are not major players in Montana's economy.

There is a large difference between the views of Missoula City residents and residents of Missoula County who live outside the city on the question of which action would improve Valley transportation more: expanding road capacity or improving bicycle and pedestrian facilities. Two-thirds (67.5%) of County residents said expanding road capacity would improve transportation more than improving bicycle and pedestrian facilities. However, city residents were evenly split on the issue. 50.3% said expanding road capacity would result in more improvement, while 49.7% said improving bicycle and pedestrian facilities would improve the system more. Missoula Valley residents displayed little change in 2008 when compared to 2000 in how they travelled to work. Missoula Valley residents transportation mode choice in 2008 for all purposes resembles that of the United States as a whole. However, cold weather during survey administration may have been a confounding factor when examining modes like walking, bicycling, and motorcycle riding.

Wheat selling at greater than $8/bushel turbocharged the crops sector of Montana agriculture during late 2007. Montana's economic base is now firing on almost all cylinders, and the state is completing a record-breaking streak of four straight years of greater than 4 percent real growth. This annual growth is likely to continue into 2008 and maybe even beyond.

The U.S. Census Bureau is using flawed methodology to produce population estimates at the sub-county level. For Montana, this means the growth of some rural communities is underestimated by as much as 400 percent, while the growth of more urban areas is significantly overestimated. Because population estimates are used to determine over $300 billion in federal funding as well as important policy choices, inaccurate data have significant implications for Montana communities. As chairman of the Federal State Population Cooperative Program for Population Estimates, author James T. Sylvester is working to correct the problem. He explains why the current method doesn''t work in Montana and offers solutions to provide more accurate data.

For the fifth straight month, Montana's unemployment rate has come in at less than 3.0 percent. In fact, the latest data released by the Montana Department of Labor and Industry confirmed this trend indicating a 2.3 percent unemployment rate for the state. The continued low unemployment rates can be credited to Montana's economic boom. There are multiple causes for this economic boom including the state's energy/commodity boom, increases in the manufacturing industries, and increases in federal government employment.

There is a little chill in the air for the U.S. economy. GDP growth should average just 2 percent from mid-2006 to mid-2007 compared to 3 percent to 4 percent from 2004 to 2006. The two causes of the slowdown are: (1) a plummeting housing market and (2) a more cautious consumer. The Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates, bringing to an end the tight monetary policy and rising interest rates.

Montana's economic boom is spreading, with all major sectors of the economic base now participating. Growth has taken place in manufacturing, nonresident travel, agriculture, mining, and the federal government. Buoyant conditions in construction and real estate may add a short-term boost in certain parts of the state, while Montana continues to buck national trends in construction, real estate, and house prices.

Montana has one of the highest rates (19 percent) of uninsured residents in the nation. Most people get health insurance through their employers, yet three out of four Montanans without insurance coverage were, in fact, employed. The 2006 Montana Employer Survey was a random telephone survey conducted in an attempt to fill in major gaps in the state?s knowledge of its uninsured population. This article reports the survey findings.

The Bureau of Business and Economic Research?s most recent surveys suggest that about 8 percent of Montana households include snowmobile recreationists. With an average household size of 2.5, perhaps as many as 85,000 Montanans participate in the sport each winter. Nonresident snowmobilers are also important contributors to the Montana economy. Snowmobiling is a popular, revenue-generating winter activity in Montana.

Using the new Census data, this article examines population statistics and trends in Montana, providing an overall look at counties that have grown, as well as those that have declined. While the state?s population has increased from 2000 to 2005, it has not grown as much as the period from 1990 to 1995.

The buzz begins the moment a new family moves into the neighborhood. Who are these new neighbors? Where did they come from? The truth is that they are not from some exotic location, but probably from Helena, or at most, Spokane. The 2000 Census reported that almost 43 percent of Montanans moved from one house to another in the last five years, and about 22 percent moved from a different state. Combined with mortgage rates at their lowest levels in a generation, this increasing mobility provides most of the explanation for rising house prices and increased home construction.

Conventional wisdom holds that if rural America simply had more jobs to offer, the population and economic declines of the past 40 years would be reversed. However, will throwing large sums of money at rural areas really help turn around the decline of rural communities? First, the underlying foundation of rural communities and economies needs to be understood. Next, recent survey results question the advisability of continuing to spend so much effort and money trying to reverse what may be an inevitable change.