BBER PUBLICATIONS SEARCH RESULTS

Includes sections on: Statewide Economic Performance - Is Montana''s Economic Hole Shallower Than the Rest? The Performance of the BBER Forecast - Economic Shocks Challenge Forecast Montana?s Regions and Cities - Seeing Beyond the Pandemic''s Grip State Revenue Report - Montana''s Employment Losses Slow Growth Major Economic Events of 2019 - A Year We Won''t Forget

This report presents the findings of the 2016 Montana Manufacturers Survey. The initial Montana Manufacturers Survey was conducted in 1999. Since then, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) at the University of Montana has conducted the survey during November and December each year. The purpose of the survey is to learn the manufactures? assessment of their plants economic performance in 2016 and their outlook for the upcoming year. The 18th annual survey was conducted in late 2016. A total of 250 establishments who were part of the Montana Manufacturing Information System (MMIS) were contacted, including Montana?s largest manufacturers as measured by employment, as well as a sample of smaller establishments representing a wide variety of sectors. Of all establishments contacted, 172 or 69 percent responded to the survey.

The Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) reviews its Economic Outlook Seminars, other Outreach efforts, publications, reseach projects and finances for 2015. Each of the BBER programs: Economic Analysis, Forest Products, Survey Research, Manufacturing Research, Energy Research, Heath Care and Montana KIDS COUNT is discussed.

For the past five years, we?ve witnessed something of an economic miracle in the eastern third of our state. Even more so in the western third of North Dakota. Towns and communities that were once depopulating and shrinking to the point where their schools and basic institutions were threatened have come roaring back, thanks to the Bakken oil boom. And for the first time in living memory, the rural portions of Montana ? particularly in the east ? were growing faster collectively than any of the urban areas.

Butte-Anaconda serves as a regional center for Southwestern Montana. Almost a quarter of its economic base is derived from trade center activities. They include people coming to town for retail shopping and obtaining health care services. There are also several professional service and management firms serving clients in surrounding rural areas.

If Rip Van Winkle were an economist, he would marvel at the changes in the Custer County economy since he went to sleep for 20 years. What was once a regional center for state and federal agencies and businesses serving area farms and ranches has now evolved into a trade and finance center and, most recently, home to firms serving the Bakken oil fields.

The most recent federal data report accelerating growth in the Flathead economy. After a crippling decline during the Great Recession, the Flathead County economy posted an increase of 2.4 percent in 2011, about 3 percent in 2012, and a stunning 4.2 percent in 2013. The most recent figures suggest this rapid growth may have moderated in 2014.

Until about 10 years ago, Richland County has enjoyed a relatively stable and prosperous economy based on agriculture, food processing, and a utility company. Then technological advances enabled the extraction of crude oil, which was previously uneconomic. It has been dubbed the ?unconventional energy revolution.?

Cascade County is a classic example of why historic data, however accurate, may not be a reliable indicator of what is happening now. Specifically, the latest annual data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis do not reflect the new indirect energy-related manufacturing activity that only started to show up late in 2013.

The Gallatin County economy has been on an economic roller coaster since the onset of the Great Recession in 2008. The Bozeman-area economy experienced a significant contraction early in the recession. But the economy began to turn around in 2010 and has continued upward ever since. In fact, Gallatin County is one of only two major urban areas in the state (the other being Yellowstone County) to significantly exceed the statewide growth rates during the recovery phase of this business cycle.

The Helena economy has traditionally been non-cyclic because of its dependence of state and federal government. The data corresponding to the Great Recession certainly confirm this notion. Lewis and Clark County was one of the very few urban areas in Montana which did not have at least one year of decline during the last decade.

Economic growth in Missoula?s economy has been frustratingly slow. After three straight years of decline during the Great Recession, the Missoula economy turned upward in 2011. But the growth rates have been have been anemic. The Missoula economy expanded about 1.5 percent per year in 2012 and 2013, as compared to 3 percent to 4 percent annual growth before the recession.

Recent economic statistics demonstrate Ravalli County?s economy is slowly emerging from the downturn experienced in the Great Recession.

The Yellowstone County economy continues to benefit from the indirect impacts of the Bakken oil field developments on the Montana- North Dakota line. Even though Billings is more than 300 miles and five hours driving time from the epicenter of the drilling activity in Williston, North Dakota, it is an attractive location for the indirect and service activities associated with the oil boom. A number of North Dakota cities are closer to Williston, but at best they have roughly half of the population of Yellowstone County. This means that industries such as finance, wholesale trade, and professional services are probably much larger and have more depth and resources in Billings than in the North Dakota cities.

Reversing a decades-long trend, it was the rural, eastern counties that led the state in growth and the more populous western counties that suffered the steepest declines.

Montana''s second largest economy, home to one of the two flagship state universities as well as the state''s second largest health care delivery market, is still very much alive.

Bureau of Business and Economic Research''s Annual report for fiscal 2012 - 2013 details the activities and finances for the year. Each of the BBER''s programs are reviewed and various research projects and publications are highlighted.

Even as growth continues to spread and solidify across the state, important pieces of the economy remain far from healthy. The national economy will turn in a more sluggish growth performance this year. This and other global economic developments make us a bit more measured as we re-examine Montana''s growth prospects.

The 2013 economic outlook for Flathead County focuses on private and government employment within the county.

The 2013 outlook shows the economy of Butte-Silver Bow is continuing to diversify. Strong growth in health care and administrative support services have helped propel this growth.

The 2013 economic outlook for Gallatin County indicates improvement and faster growth in the future. The forecast for overall growth in Gallatin County is higher than in any other major urban area in the state.

The 2013 economic outlook for Yellowstone County focuses on the importance of energy and wholesale trade. It forecasts continued growth in Yellowstone County.

The 2013 economic outlook for Missoula County forecasts a projected growth of about 2.4 percent per year between 2013 and 2016, which is slightly less than the statewide average.

The 2013 economic outlook for Cascade County suggests modest growth, with stronger gains in agriculture-related businesses and light manufacturing offset in part by government declines.

The 2013 economic outlook for Lewis and Clark County predicts a temporary boost in growth in 2014 due to the end of the state government pay freeze. Even so, overall growth in the county well be less than 2.0 percent per year.

The 2013 economic outlook for Ravalli County forecasts a slow recovery. This report highlights lagging housing construction as well as the weak real estate market.

The 2013 outlook for the state of Montana predicts that the strong growth seen in 2012 will continue. Statewide growth in inflation-adjusted nonfarm earnings is expected to build to a peak of 3.0 percent by 2014.

Both coal and oil production have experienced ups and downs during the past decade. Even so, generally rising prices have meant that the contributions from the energy industries have been a growing contributor to state government revenues.

A lot of things started to fall into place for the recovering Montana economy in 2012. We estimate that the state economy grew by about 2.7 percent in 2012.

The process of diversification away from its historic mining roots continued in the Butte-Silver Bow economy in 2012, yet the influence of minerals and natural resources to the local economy remains important.

The good news for Great Falls and Cascade County is that the recession of 2008-09 was kinder and gentler to the local economy than in almost any other part of the state.

Despite its image as a wild and woolly cowtown, Miles City has a diverse economic base dependent on federal and state government, agriculture, and agricultural-related activities and transportation.

Probably all are painfully aware of the impact the Great Recession had in the Flathead Valley economy. The Flathead is over 4,000 jobs shy of its 2007 peak employment of more than 41,000 jobs. Economy-wide wages are $57 million shy of their peak in 2008.

Is the Gallatin County economy regaining its pre-recession form? Judging from the most recent data you might be tempted to say it has.

This has been a long recession for the Missoula County economy, but the end may finally be in sight. The latest data for employment show definite growth during 2012 while corresponding figures for inflation-adjusted wages also turned upward, but with significant volatility.

The direct and indirect impacts of the eastern Montana energy boom made for a short recession in Yellowstone County. There was one year of stagnation (2008) and one year of decline (2009) followed by accelerating growth in 2010, 2011, and 2012.

Annual report for the BBER covering the years activities and accomplishments featuring major projects from each of the program areas.

The trend in oil well permitting in Montana is up, and the state's energy future looks reasonably bright.

This Q & A with BBER economists and experts throughout the state discusses the latest economic trends and forecasts, as well as the outlook for Montana's important sectors: housing, energy, travel and recreation, health care, agriculture, manufacturing, and forest products.

The Montana economy remains stuck in the starting gate - actually slowing down from the 1.5 percent growth rate of 2010 to register a disappointing 0.7 percent growth.

The Great Recession was relatively mild for the Butte-area economy.

The Cascade County economy has largely escaped the effects of the Great Recession due to its dependence on noncyclical Malmstrom Airforce Base (AFB) and the health care industry.

Fergus County did not entirely miss the Great Recession, but fortuitous growth in several basic industries helped to cushion the blow

Probably most would now agree that the peak employment experienced in Flathead County during 2007 was the result of too much boon in the boon phase of economic expansion.

The Great Recession hit the Gallatin County economy hard, but none of the basic industries were permanently scarred.

The Hill County economy declined only for one year (2009) during the Great Recession. But the 2008 and 2011 increases were close to zero.

The recession impacts have been much more muted in Lewis and Clark County than elsewhere in the state.

The postponement of the return of stronger growth to Montana's economy was felt acutely in Missoula.

Ravalli County continues to experience the hard times of the current recession, which is evident in the depressed real estate market.

The Billings-area economy saw respectable growth in 2011 led by growth in its traditional base as a services and distribution hub.

A Q&A with Bureau economists and industry experts discusses the latest economic trends and forecasts, as well as the outlook for Montana's important industry sectors.

The 2012 economic outlook for Yellowstone County predicts accelerated growth, with inflation-corrected nonfarm earnings growth roughly at the state average throughout the forecast period of the baseline forecast.

The economic outlook for the Butte area projects growth of about 1.7 percent per year from 2012 to 2015. This projected growth rate is slightly less than the 2.4 percent statewide average and down almost a full percentage point from the pre-recession figures for the Butte-area economy.

The economic outlook for Ravalli County indicates a weak real estate market, however a promising sign is the growth in professional services.

The economic outlook for Montana shows that the state has experienced a rate of overall growth that is less than expected. This is due to inflation, weak individual sector performances, and U.S. economic growth.

The economic outlook for Missoula County details expected growth as construction declines are halted and a firmer recovery in tourist and trade center-related spending takes hold.

The economic outlook for the Helena-area economy shows a better than expected performance. The baseline forecast calls for renewed growth in 2012 and beyond at just below the state average.

The economic outlook for Gallatin County forecasts a 3.2 percent growth from 2012 to 2015. Gallatin County is projected to be among the fastest-growing urban areas in Montana.

The economic outlook for Flathead County notes that because the recession hit the Flathead economy more so than other urban areas of the state, returning to pre-recession levels of labor earnings and employment may prove more challenging for this county.

The Cascade County economic outlook projects growth of about 2 percent per year from 2012 to 2015. This is approximately the same average growth rate as before the recession.

From 2000 to 2006, Montana's oil production more than doubled. Montana's geologic setting has long provided opportunities for successful exploration and development activities, and new technology has opened up billions of barrels of oil in the Bakken.

Annual report for the BBER covering the years activities and accomplishments featuring major projects from each of the program areas.

Despite the recent recession and extensive declines in wood products, manufacturing remains a substantial component of Montana's economy, with sales of $10 billion during 2010.

The worst recession since the 1930s ended in the summer of 2009. With sluggish hiring, weak growth, and a whiff of fresh banking problems in Europe and the United States, it doesn't feel like the economy is getting better. But with tax policy at last in place, with a weaker dollar and a slowly improving consumer mood, 2011 shapes up as the year that the recovery finally gets rolling in the national economy.

After enduring the broadest, deepest recession seen in the state in 25 years, Montanans can expect to see better growth arrive in the state economy in 2011.

There is almost no place in Montana that escaped the Great Recession. But the course of the recession did vary from county to county within the state. How did the recession play out in different parts of the state?

Despite efforts by the federal government to increase home sales in 2010, the U.S. housing market continued to contract, with home sales declining by one-quarter. At the same time, the average number of homes offered for sale each month increased by one-half.

One marketing and promotion strategy that is growing popular throughout the tourism industry is geotourism, which incorporates the concept of sustainable tourism ? that destinations should remain unspoiled for future generations ? while protecting a place's character.Montanans have the power to direct the type of tourism development in line with the values of people in the state which, in turn, draws people to visit who hold the same values.

Understanding the role public health care dollars play in a state's economy is important, and particularly so for Montana, which has more baby boomers and veterans per capita than the rest of the nation. And both of these groups rely on public funding for their health care needs.

How we will pay the full cost of bringing this recession to a close? The concern is not just about how we will close the government deficits that ballooned as economic growth went into reverse. it's about reconfiguring and rebalancing everything from household budgets to international trade to adjust to what might be called a post-housing bubble reality.

The dreadful economic conditions experienced by the country's forest products industry in 2009 improved somewhat during 2010.

The recession was relatively mild for the Billings area economy. There were only modest declines in 2008 and 2009. In addition, Billings has been an indirect beneficiary of the energy/commodity boom.

The economic outlook for Butte-Silver Bow County notes that the recession was relatively mild for the Butte area economy. There was only a one-year decline in nonfarm labor income. There were, however, decreases in construction and retail trade.

The economic outlook for Ravalli County shows that despite a large cyclic decline within the county, there is a bright spot as Hamilton continues to evolve into a regional trade and service center.

The economic outlook for the state predicts growth due to the following: investment in the state's energy and natural resource infrastructure, growth in farm receipts, growth in exports, and continued strengthening in consumer spending.

The economic outlook for Missoula County acknowledges that the county has experienced three straight years of economic declines, however growth is projected to turn positive in 2011.

The economic outlook for the Helena area projects growth to be about 1 percent per year from 2010 to 2014, well below the 3 percent to 5 percent increases before the recession.

The 2011 economic outlook predicts that the Bozeman area will emerge from the recession relatively unscathed. 3.5 percent annual growth is projected for 2010 to 2014.

The Flathead County outlook predicts that it will be at least 2014 before real nonfarm labor income in Flathead County regains its 2007 peak. It will take even longer for employment to regain its pre-recession level.

The 2011 economic outlook shows the Great Falls area economy experienced fewer recession impacts than any other area in Montana. Even so, certain sectors, mostly wholesale trade, retail trade, and construction, were hard hit.

Annual report for the BBER covering the years activities and accomplishments featuring major projects from each of the program areas.

The slow rates of growth forecast for Yellowstone County in 2010 and later reflect continued weak conditions in construction and real estate plus increased competition from retail and service establishments in second-order trade centers such as Bozeman and Miles City.

The Butte-Silver Bow County Economic outlook shows declines in mining, transportation, real estate, construction, and retail trade. The trade center components of Butte's economic base continue to grow.

The economic outlook for Ravalli County shows one bright spot: Hamilton continues to evolve into a regional trade and service center. Slight positive growth is forecast for 2010 but may be too optimistic.

The 2010 outlook expects recovery overall in the state economy as consumer spending in the national economy stabilizes and markets for Montana's products begin to improve. Job growth will be slow, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain high through 2010.

The projected -0.7 percent decline for Missoula County in 2010 may be too optimistic. The three straight years of no growth or declines (2008 to 2010) is Missoula's worst economic performance since the early 1980s.

The Helena economy will not totally escape the impacts of the current recession despite it being a 'recession proof' government town. The preliminary 2009 data show significant weakness in real estate, construction, and retail trade. Growth is projected.

For Gallatin County, growth is projected to return in 2010 and later, but the growth rates will be far below those posted from 2003 to 2007.

The Flathead economy is the epicenter of the recession in Montana. It will be at least mid-2013 before real nonfarm labor income in Flathead County regains its 2007 peak. It will take even longer for employment to regain its pre-recession levels.

The 2010 outlook shows that not even the Great Falls economy will completely escape the current recession. Preliminary 2009 data show weakness in construction, real estate, retail trade, wholesale trade, and transportation.

Annual report for the BBER covering the years activities and accomplishments featuring major projects from each of the program areas.

The forecasting business is by its very nature future-oriented. So even though evidence of the recession remains depressingly easy to find, the signs of recovery in the coming months are becoming clearer as well. The question for Montana's economy is, what will the recovery look like?

With innovations in technology and increasing globalization affecting all aspects of life, we should be aware that the demands on highways, railroads, airports, pipelines and other infrastructure in rural Montana are growing and changing. Through advanced technologies, expanded service, and regional coordination, we can address these transportation challenges.

The 2009 economic outlook predicts that a slowdown in the natural resource industries is likely to have a 'double whammy' on the Yellowstone County economy.

The 2010 forecast for Butte-Silver Bow predicts continued growth of the trade center components and further development as a regional trade and service center. Future economic trends depend crucially on events in the mining industry.

This outlook notes that although Ravalli County's growth has decelerated significantly since the 1990's as migration has slowed, Hamilton continues to evolve into a regional trade and service center.

The Montana Outlook for 2009 predicts that the state's economy will grow about one half of 1 percent during the year. Depending on risk factors the actual figure could turn out to be a decline of one half of 1 percent.

The 2009 outlook for Missoula County projects about 1 to 2 percent per year growth, which is well below the 2 to 3 percent growth that was seen between 2002 and 2005.

The 2009 outlook for Lewis and Clark County indicates that the current recession will likely have a relatively small impact on the Helena-area economy. State and federal government workers account for almost 65 percent of the economic base in Lewis and Clark County, and government employment is traditionally less cyclic.

The 2009 outlook for Gallatin County states that although the bust in construction and real estate as well as the slowing national economy have impacted the county, all trade center components continue to grow.

The 2009 economic outlook for Flathead County states that after a 1.1 percent decline in the overall economy in 2008, the Flathead economy is projected to reach 4 to 5 percent growth by 2012.

The 2009 economic outlook for Cascade County predicts that Cascade will be among the least impacted of Montana's major urban areas by the current recession.

Paul E. Polzin, Director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research, retired in June. During Polzin's directorship, the Bureau has thrived and grown from eight employees to 18 full-time workers and fields more than 6,000 requests each year from people seeking economic information.

Annual report for the BBER covering the years activities and accomplishments featuring major projects from each of the program areas.

Wheat selling at greater than $8/bushel turbocharged the crops sector of Montana agriculture during late 2007. Montana's economic base is now firing on almost all cylinders, and the state is completing a record-breaking streak of four straight years of greater than 4 percent real growth. This annual growth is likely to continue into 2008 and maybe even beyond.

Based on Montana's current snow conditions, the strength of the Canadian dollar, and the likelihood for Americans to travel in the United States where their dollar is not deflated, Montana will likely experience a 2 to 3 percent increase in nonresident travel in 2008.

The 2008 Montana agricultural outlook for both crops and livestock is promising with relatively strong prices. Nationally, farm household income for 2007 is projected to increase by 8 percent, substantially above the 2001-2006 average. However, a tight labor market exists for agricultural workers in Montana and prices for energy-based inputs, such as fuel and fertilizer, are likely to remain relatively high.

The U.S. economy is projected to slow in 2008, and further declines in the U.S. housing industry, tightening credit availability, and high oil prices all present risks to Montana manufacturers. However, while increases in global economic activity may slow slightly in 2008, continued strong economic performances, especially in China, India, and Russia, could help sustain demand for many Montana products.

A second weak year in the U.S. housing industry continued to negatively impact Montana's wood products industry during 2007. Weak markets and mill curtailments are expected into 2009, with housing starts for 2008 expected to be lower than 2007 levels.

In the context of world history the idea of a powerful and rising Asia is not new. A thousand years ago the emerging countries of today, including much of Asia, were more powerful economically than the countries that we define today as developed. Among the four largest economies in the world by 2040 three are projected to be in Asia (China, Japan, and India) with the possibility, barring major catastrophes, that the economy of China will by then be larger than that of the United States.

There is a little chill in the air for the U.S. economy. GDP growth should average just 2 percent from mid-2006 to mid-2007 compared to 3 percent to 4 percent from 2004 to 2006. The two causes of the slowdown are: (1) a plummeting housing market and (2) a more cautious consumer. The Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates, bringing to an end the tight monetary policy and rising interest rates.

Montana's economic boom is spreading, with all major sectors of the economic base now participating. Growth has taken place in manufacturing, nonresident travel, agriculture, mining, and the federal government. Buoyant conditions in construction and real estate may add a short-term boost in certain parts of the state, while Montana continues to buck national trends in construction, real estate, and house prices.

Quit griping about gas prices. The current price of gasoline is actually less now than in 1980, when adjusted for inflation. Gas prices have not had a substantial effect on travel because Americans have not hit their threshold on the price they are willing to pay for gasoline. Montana's travel industry has been on a growth projection for years, and growth occurred in virtually all travel indicators within the state from 2005 to 2006.

Montana's agricultural sector produced over $3.2 billion of sales in 2005, while generating net farm income of over $700 million, or 4.4 percent of Gross State Products. Montana's net farm income declined by nearly 15 percent from 2004, but was substantially above the five-year average for net farm income. The 2007 Montana agricultural outlook for both crops and livestock is promising, with relatively strong prices.

Montana's manufacturing industry had increased sales, employment, and worker earnings in 2006, building on improvement both in 2004 and 2005. The sector in 2006 produced approximately $8 billion in product output and employed close to 27,500 people who earned $1.2 billion in labor income. The manufacturing sector accounted for over 20 percent of Montana's economic base. Some Montana manufacturers were also positively impacted by the continued growth of Montana's economy and those of adjacent states.

Average lumber prices fell by over 20 percent in 2006 relative to 2005. Lower prices coupled with continued constraints on timber harvest caused a decline in sales, production, and employment in Montana's forest products industry. No dramatic improvements are expected in 2007.