BBER PUBLICATIONS SEARCH RESULTS

Here are the top 10 predictions for the U.S. and global economies courtesy of our friends at IHS Markit:

This report details the findings of an analysis of the factors and trends that impact the affordability of residential housing in Lewis and Clark County, Montana, home of the state capital, Helena. To foster a better understanding of the forces producing this outcome and inform the discussion on policies and decisions that could meaningfully affect affordability in the near future, we report on three fundamental aspects of local housing affordability. First is an assessment of the County''s affordability trends, emphasizing the rural portion of the County that overlaps with the area affected by the ten-acre minimum lot size restriction. Second is a projection of the growth of households in Lewis and Clark County and affected area one major factor in housing demand. Lastly, this report reviews the impacts of minimum lot size restrictions in other parts of the United States to see how this policy might impact the costs of new and existing housing units in the County.

How COVID-19 Has Reshaped the Economy - What Changes Are Here to Stay? A Life-Or-Death Moment for Cities - New York and Other Metropolises Must Protect Themselves From pandemics or Our Future Will Be Far Less Urban The State of Manufacturing in Montana - Manufacturing Growth Stalls Due to COVID-19

A discussion of the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic seen through the lens of the Current Employment Survey (CES). Each month the U.S. Bureau of the Labor Statistics surveys about 697,000 work sites in the country and tallies the number of workers, as of the 12th of the month. The number of workers are reported nationwide, statewide and for each major metropolitan statistical area (MSA).

This November, Montanans will have the opportunity to vote on whether or not to legalize recreational marijuana. There are two items are on the ballot this election season. The first is CI-118, which amends the Montana Constitution to include language to establish the legal age for owning, consuming, and/or possessing marijuana; making it the same as for alcohol. The second ballot initiative is the Marijuana Legalization and Tax Initiative (I-190), which legalizes marijuana for consumption and possession of marijuana for adults over the age of 21. A recent study completed by the Bureau of Business and Economic Research found that legalizing recreational marijuana could contribute an additional $43 million to Montana?s general fund in 2022, increasing sin tax revenues by 50%. Given the current economic environment, with slowing household income and increases in transfer payments, a new revenue stream could help reduce red ink.

In early 2018, the Trump administration announced its first round of trade tariffs ? none of the administration?s trade policies have been ratified by Congress. The first round began in January 2018 on consumer appliances, and was quickly followed by tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. In May 2019, an additional $50 billion in tariffs were added on Chinese imports. The repercussions of these restrictive trade policies resulted in predicted retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. The impacts of these tariffs are being passed on and paid for by U.S. consumers ? because tariffs lead to higher domestic prices for protected goods.

The year in review has sections covering Statewide Economic Performance: Montana''s Growth Engine is Humming, The Performance of the BBER Forecast: Improving Accuracy, Montana''s Cities and Regions: Gallatin County Now State''s Second Largest, State Revenue Report: Another Strong Year, Major Economic Events of 2019: Another Year of Growth.

of last year was how much longer could the U.S. economy continue to ride high as the rest of the world seemed to be faltering? Just a few short months ago, we thought the answer was clear ? not much longer. But much has changed in just a few months. Here are the top 10 predictions for the U.S. and global economies for 2020 courtesy of our friends at IHS Markit.

The U.S. Forest Service hopes to improve forest health and reduce wildfires with increased timber harvests.

Medicaid expansion has a substantial effect on Montana''s economy. Assuming that enrollment plateaus near current levels, Medicaid expansion will introduce approximately $350 million to $400 million of new spending to Montana''s economy each year. This spending ripples through Montana''s economy, generating approximately 5,000 jobs and $270 million in personal income in each year between 2018 and 2020. In addition to generating economic activity, Medicaid expansion appears to improve outcomes for Montanans?reducing crime, improving health, and lowering debt. While the state pays a nominal amount for these benefits, the costs to the state budget are more than offset by the savings created by Medicaid expansion and by the revenues associated with increased economic activity.

General fund revenues are weak and grew by just $20 million in 2017. Why aren't revenues coming in as they should be? With 32 taxes, fees and other sources of revenue, what's causing the state's tax collection shortfall?

Montana ranked third out 50 states in the most traffic fatalities per 100,000. Wearing a seat belt saves lives, yet the state does not have a primary seat belt law. Read the results of a public opinion poll about seat belt regulation in Montana.

The women?s rights movement made significant strides in the 1970s and took a prominent role in society. Dorothy Bradley was elected to the Montana House of Representatives from Gallatin County in 1970, at a time when politics was exclusively a man?s realm. In this excerpt from an essay from 1971, she recounts her time serving as the only woman in the Montana House.

This report provides information on the agency costs and other impacts associated with litigation of forest management projects in the Northern Region (i.e., Region One) of the Forest Service (FS) through a combination of literature review, information provided by the agency?s Region One (R1) and Washington offices, and a case study of the Spotted Bear River (SBR) project on the Flathead National Forest. Data to determine the total cost of litigation are not readily available from publicly accessible or even internal databases, and a high level of cooperation is needed from personnel at various levels within the involved agencies in order to determine the costs and other impacts associated with litigation.

A quantitative assessment of Montana''s eGovernment services regarding cost savings and satisfaction levels.

For the past five years, we?ve witnessed something of an economic miracle in the eastern third of our state. Even more so in the western third of North Dakota. Towns and communities that were once depopulating and shrinking to the point where their schools and basic institutions were threatened have come roaring back, thanks to the Bakken oil boom. And for the first time in living memory, the rural portions of Montana ? particularly in the east ? were growing faster collectively than any of the urban areas.

This article examines property taxes in Montana''s largest urban areas - Billings, Bozeman, Butte, Great Falls, Helena, Kalispell, and Missoula. Tax rates - also known as mill levies - are the highest in Missoula and lowest in Bozeman.

It''s not just people in energy industries who are benefiting from the oil boom. Workers in industries such as construction, professional services, and accommodations now have great employment opportunities and higher wages.

This is a study of the effects on the Montana economy of the operations of the Montana Board of Research and Commercialization Technology (MBRCT), a program established by the Montana Legislature in 2000 to encourage economic development through investment in Montana-based research projects with a clear path to commercialization. The Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana (BBER), using a state-of-the-art policy analysis model and publicly available data on program spending and associated impacts, produced a detailed assessment of the ultimate impact of the operations of the program on employment, income, output, and population in the Montana economy.

Forecasts for the U.S. economy have called for sluggish growth this year, with better growth next year. But each year in this sluggish recovery, the goalposts are moved back and we must again wait for better growth "next year." Has "next year" finally arrived in 2014?

Reversing a decades-long trend, it was the rural, eastern counties that led the state in growth and the more populous western counties that suffered the steepest declines.

Helena was in the news in 2013, in an unfortunate way, as sinking gold prices claimed a casualty with the closure of the Drumlummon mine. The mine''s closure was offset by surprisingly strong growth in health care, government, and government-related services industries.

The federal government plays an important role in the national and state economies, having spent more than $3 trillion throughout the U.S., and almost $11 billion in Montana in fiscal year 2010. Federal spending varies significantly by state and may be thought of as influenced by politics, but in fact it is more influenced by economics and demographics.

Bureau of Business and Economic Research''s Annual report for fiscal 2012 - 2013 details the activities and finances for the year. Each of the BBER''s programs are reviewed and various research projects and publications are highlighted.

Q&A with Governor Steve Bullock on statewide economic issues and plans for his first year as governor.

Nothing short of a revolution is sweeping across hospitals as they prepare to cope with the largest changes in health care regulation and finance since Medicare.

There is no doubt about it Helena is a government town. The end of the state government pay freeze should temporarily boost growth in 2014. But the near-term trends for all levels of government will keep overall growth in the Lewis Clark County economy less than 2.0 percent per year, less than the statewide average.

There are more than 36 million people with a disability in the United States, accounting for almost 12 percent of the total civilian non-institutionalized population. In Montana, the proportion with a disability is greater. Thirteen percent (125,302) of the civilian non-institutionalized population in Montana has a disability. Working age adults with a disability, those 18-64 years of age, comprise over half of the disabled population in Montana and nearly 11 percent of all working adults in this age group. With continued increases in the cost of health care and an increase in the number of working-age Montanans with disabilities as a result of the aging baby boom generation, the federal and state share of spending to support this population represents a large and faster growing share of all federal and state expenditures. The aging of the baby boom generation is expected to contribute to growth in Social Security Disability Insurance awards for at least another decade. In Montana, federal government payments for Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income alone totaled more than $469 million in 2010, up 5 percent from 2009, and almost 10 percent from 2008.

The 2011 Montana legislative session promises to be particularly challenging, with changes in leadership and tough budget decisions to be made. Two Montana state senators, Republican Sen. Jim Shockley and Democratic Sen. Dave Wanzenreid, agree that the budget and the economy will be the overriding concern of the Legislature this session.

Governor Brian Schweitzer met with Patrick Barkey, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research, and Shannon Furniss, editor of the Montana Business Quarterly, to discuss statewide economic issues and plans for his second term.