BBER PUBLICATIONS SEARCH RESULTS

We asked speakers from the 2018 Economic Outlook Seminar to share their insights on the prospects for some key sectors of the state economy.

Visitors flock to Montana for a multitude of reasons ? high among them is outdoor recreation. One group is creating a grassland reserve in northeast Montana to bring tourism and economic opportunities to the region.

The 2017 Economic Outlook Seminar covered a wide range of sectors and topics from job growth to energy and tourism. In this round table discussion, we highlight some of those topics and industries in an effort to better understand the state?s economic climate.

In this study we examine the economic contributions of craft brewing to the state of Montana. This is the third iteration of this research, previously completed in 2012 and 2014, separately. We find the Montana craft brewing industry to be experiencing rapid growth, with total beer production having increased by 87% since we began collecting data in 2010. Measured by other metrics the industry is growing even faster, with sales, employment, compensation, and expenditures all having more than doubled in that time. Given all this activity, we find the total economic impact of craft brewing to be sizeable, contributing 1,044 jobs, almost $34 million in personal income, $103 million in output by Montana businesses, and 278 additional residents living in the state due to the operations of Montana state brewers. New to this study is Montana brewer agricultural purchases, totaling about $4.5 million dollars in 2015. Finally we look at some of the intangible benefits of brewpubs and find them to invigorate neighborhoods, repurpose industrial properties and bring communities together.

Montana small grains and corn producers experienced lower prices and revenues, while the livestock sector enjoyed a period of profitability in 2015. Favorable weather over the summer resulted in average or relatively good yields for many wheat, barley and hay producers throughout most of Montana.

The big story is Montana''s economy coming into balance; both geographically and across industries. Three or four years ago, commodity prices were high and oil was booming. That, along with high agriculture prices, made for faster growth in rural counties, primarily eastern counties, rather than in bigger cities.

Montana''s forest industry is comprised of more than 80 active facilities that manufacture a variety of wood products. The industry receives its raw material - timber - from forests both inside and outside the state, relying on landowners, foresters, loggers and truck drivers to provide that timber year after year. Montana mills sell their forest products into local, national and international markets. Throughout this supply chain, from forest to mill to final consumer, there are numerous uncertainties and constant changes in both timber supply and wood products demand.

If you enjoy sleepless nights and watching your hair fall out, then perhaps you should get into the commodity business. The big swings that occur in commodity prices, often due to speculation or events half a world away, make the business of prediction an exceedingly risky one. Yet Montana producers of all kinds of commodities have been mostly winning in the marketplace the better part of the last decade. Sustained high prices for everything from oil to beef have added spark to the state economy and kept tax coffers in Helena flush.

This report provides information on the agency costs and other impacts associated with litigation of forest management projects in the Northern Region (i.e., Region One) of the Forest Service (FS) through a combination of literature review, information provided by the agency?s Region One (R1) and Washington offices, and a case study of the Spotted Bear River (SBR) project on the Flathead National Forest. Data to determine the total cost of litigation are not readily available from publicly accessible or even internal databases, and a high level of cooperation is needed from personnel at various levels within the involved agencies in order to determine the costs and other impacts associated with litigation.

For the past five years, we?ve witnessed something of an economic miracle in the eastern third of our state. Even more so in the western third of North Dakota. Towns and communities that were once depopulating and shrinking to the point where their schools and basic institutions were threatened have come roaring back, thanks to the Bakken oil boom. And for the first time in living memory, the rural portions of Montana ? particularly in the east ? were growing faster collectively than any of the urban areas.

Butte-Anaconda serves as a regional center for Southwestern Montana. Almost a quarter of its economic base is derived from trade center activities. They include people coming to town for retail shopping and obtaining health care services. There are also several professional service and management firms serving clients in surrounding rural areas.

If Rip Van Winkle were an economist, he would marvel at the changes in the Custer County economy since he went to sleep for 20 years. What was once a regional center for state and federal agencies and businesses serving area farms and ranches has now evolved into a trade and finance center and, most recently, home to firms serving the Bakken oil fields.

The most recent federal data report accelerating growth in the Flathead economy. After a crippling decline during the Great Recession, the Flathead County economy posted an increase of 2.4 percent in 2011, about 3 percent in 2012, and a stunning 4.2 percent in 2013. The most recent figures suggest this rapid growth may have moderated in 2014.

Until about 10 years ago, Richland County has enjoyed a relatively stable and prosperous economy based on agriculture, food processing, and a utility company. Then technological advances enabled the extraction of crude oil, which was previously uneconomic. It has been dubbed the ?unconventional energy revolution.?

A wide-ranging discussion covering economic topics of interest. The discussions include: the Economy, Healthcare, Tourism and Recreation, Agriculture, Manufacturing, Forest Products, Housing, and Energy. A panel of industry experts and economists provide their responses to important questions regarding Montana?s economy.

The Gallatin County economy has been on an economic roller coaster since the onset of the Great Recession in 2008. The Bozeman-area economy experienced a significant contraction early in the recession. But the economy began to turn around in 2010 and has continued upward ever since. In fact, Gallatin County is one of only two major urban areas in the state (the other being Yellowstone County) to significantly exceed the statewide growth rates during the recovery phase of this business cycle.

The Helena economy has traditionally been non-cyclic because of its dependence of state and federal government. The data corresponding to the Great Recession certainly confirm this notion. Lewis and Clark County was one of the very few urban areas in Montana which did not have at least one year of decline during the last decade.

Economic growth in Missoula?s economy has been frustratingly slow. After three straight years of decline during the Great Recession, the Missoula economy turned upward in 2011. But the growth rates have been have been anemic. The Missoula economy expanded about 1.5 percent per year in 2012 and 2013, as compared to 3 percent to 4 percent annual growth before the recession.

Recent economic statistics demonstrate Ravalli County?s economy is slowly emerging from the downturn experienced in the Great Recession.

The Yellowstone County economy continues to benefit from the indirect impacts of the Bakken oil field developments on the Montana- North Dakota line. Even though Billings is more than 300 miles and five hours driving time from the epicenter of the drilling activity in Williston, North Dakota, it is an attractive location for the indirect and service activities associated with the oil boom. A number of North Dakota cities are closer to Williston, but at best they have roughly half of the population of Yellowstone County. This means that industries such as finance, wholesale trade, and professional services are probably much larger and have more depth and resources in Billings than in the North Dakota cities.

Running a ranch with vast landscapes and numerous livestock can be complicated, but a UM student has a technology that he thinks will make ranching more sustainable and profitable. And his business venture is promising enough that he was selected as a finalist at Blackstone Launchpad''s recent Demo Day in New York City

As we assess Montana''s economy, new data call into question two trends: the stronger than average performance of our state economic and the natural resource boom that has played such an important part in that performance. There are signs that grow in Montana''s economy has been slowing, and it''s important to take these trends into account.

Q&A with Montana''s leading economists and industry experts on economic issues facing Montana.

Reversing a decades-long trend, it was the rural, eastern counties that led the state in growth and the more populous western counties that suffered the steepest declines.

The Great Recession was barely noticeable in Hill County. There were only two years with little or no growth in income.

The number of home-based workers usually is outside the normal labor information stream, but the American Community Survey asks people how they get to work. This question provides information on commute time and place of work and determines whether people are home-based workers.

Even as growth continues to spread and solidify across the state, important pieces of the economy remain far from healthy. The national economy will turn in a more sluggish growth performance this year. This and other global economic developments make us a bit more measured as we re-examine Montana''s growth prospects.

Q & A with Bureau economists and industry experts throughout the state about the latest economic trends and forecasts, as well as the outlook for Montana's important sectors.

Will what happened in British Columbia with the mountain pine beetle happen in Montana? No. However, forests are changing and will affect Montana's economy through impacts on the wood products industry and tourism.

Organic farming is on the rise in Montana as farmers respond to increased demand and an increasing willingness to pay higher prices for organic products. As the economy rebounds, the future looks strong for high-quality, locally grown, and organic farm products in Montana.

Montana farmers and ranchers have rebounded from a year of lower prices and production in 2009 to higher prices and near record production in 2010. U.S. net farm income is expected to increase by more than 30 percent in 2010, with much of the increase resulting from higher prices in the dairy and hog complexes.

Montana agricultural producers have weathered the financial storm better than other industrial sectors and agricultural producers from other states. Preliminary studies in Montana suggest that 2009 net farm income will decline about 20 percent from 2008 net farm income of $690 million, while the U.S. Department of Agriculture is predicting a decline of more than 30 percent from 2008 for all agricultural producers in the United States.

Montana's agricultural sector had an excellent year, producing an estimated $3.2 billion of sales in 2008 and an estimated $1 billion in net farm income. The 2009 Montana agricultural outlook for both crops and livestock is promising with lower, but still relatively strong, prices for crops and livestock.

The 2008 Montana agricultural outlook for both crops and livestock is promising with relatively strong prices. Nationally, farm household income for 2007 is projected to increase by 8 percent, substantially above the 2001-2006 average. However, a tight labor market exists for agricultural workers in Montana and prices for energy-based inputs, such as fuel and fertilizer, are likely to remain relatively high.

Montana's agricultural sector produced over $3.2 billion of sales in 2005, while generating net farm income of over $700 million, or 4.4 percent of Gross State Products. Montana's net farm income declined by nearly 15 percent from 2004, but was substantially above the five-year average for net farm income. The 2007 Montana agricultural outlook for both crops and livestock is promising, with relatively strong prices.